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Long Term Care Insurance |
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The report titled, "The NIC Compendium Project: A Guide to Long-Term Care Projection and Simulation Models,"is expected to help policymakers determine the best combination of funding to pay for increasing health care needs of Baby Boomers. "In a short 20 years from now, our nation's economy will face an enormous challenge," said Robert G. Kramer, president of NIC. "That is, how are we going to pay for the massive numbers of Baby Boomers who will move through the long-term care system? This Compendium will focus attention on the need for long-term care research and help stimulate a policy debate at the national level." Lead author and researcher for the project was Joshua M. Wiener, Ph.D., senior fellow and program director for Aging, Disability and Long-Term Care at RTI. His past work includes leading the development of the first long-term care financing micro-simulation model. He points out several significant findings, but notes some limitations for the impact of price changes and substitutability of nursing home care: Among those turning 65 now, nearly 70 percent will need some form of long-term care before they die, and 20 percent will need it for more than five years. The number of people with disabilities is likely to increase substantially, even if disability rates fall. The demand for long-term care services is likely to at least double by 2040 with an estimated 6.2 million using paid home care and up to 3.1 million using nursing care. Price will have a big impact on the level of long-term care expenditures. Based on a 1994 study from Wiener, Illston and Hanley, the total expenditures in 2018 will be $134 billion at an increase of 4.5 percent annually (1993 dollars) or $215 billion at an increase of 6.5 percent annually. The financial status of older people will improve over time and the proportion of older people using Medicaid for a significant period of long-term care declines from 45 percent in 2000 to 29 percent in 2030. Most older people will be without private long-term care insurance in the future because of its high cost. The Compendium is available for purchase for $75 in either an electronic or a print version from NIC. For more information, see related story link or call (410) 267-0504.
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